Uncertainties Surrounding Gas oil and Gasoline Futures ahead of OPEC+ Meeting.

      The global oil market continues to experience dynamic shifts in supply and demand, mainly influenced by production agreements, inventory levels and trade policies. According to CME data, April's future contracts for RBOB Gasoline and NY Harbour ULSD closed at $2.6109 per gallon and $2.6993 per gallon respectively.This represents a 4.2% and 2.1% increase respectively, week on week. The monthly volatility of April futures contracts for gasoline and gasoil stood at 14.7% and 5.5% respectively. This volatility is mainly pegged on speculator’s reaction to oil inventory levels, higher-for-longer interest rates, disruption of petroleum supply chains and speculations regarding voluntary production cuts by OPEC+.

      Uncertainty surrounding ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas, as well as ongoing Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping also added a risk premium to oil prices, and disruptions on US refineries as well as Russia's export ban on gasoline. These developments have resulted in notable shifts in petrol (gasoline) and diesel (gasoil) supplies. According to S&P Global insights, light distillates like gasoline surged by 24% to 7.777 million barrels, marking an eight-month high, while middle distillates, including diesel, dropped by 20% to 1.641 million barrels, the lowest since October 16. Furthermore, US diesel exports to Europe nearly halved in February to 6.65 million barrels due to refinery disruptions, further straining diesel supplies in the region.

      Meanwhile, the most recent EIA report showed a larger-than-expected increase in US crude and petroleum stocks, climbing by 4.199 million barrels last week due to a slowdown in refinery processing. Despite fluctuations, inventory levels remained below the 10-year average, emphasizing the market's responsiveness to supply changes.

10-year stock levels for crude oil and petroleum distillates.

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